馬英九連任僑社反響:美中學者贊揚台灣選舉



文章来源:世界日报   时间:2012年01月16日 点击:2008 次 评论: 3

台灣大選揭曉,馬英九勝出,連任中華民國總統,芝加哥大學學者楊大力及密西根大學學者林愿清都認為,這個結果將有助兩岸繼續維持目前的和平關係,也對兩岸的經貿互動,有正面的影響。

芝加哥大學北京中心主任、政治學教授楊大力表示,台灣這次總統大選的高投票率、和平投票、以及反對黨承認敗選,坦然面對選舉結果的過程,都令人讚賞,也是台灣民主愈來愈成熟的展現。

楊大力認為,在國際經濟景氣低迷的環境下,各國現任領導人要爭取連任都倍感困難,馬英九在這次的選舉也是拚得很辛苦,最後勝選難能可貴。

楊大力說,馬英九勝選也代表台灣人民希望保持現狀,這也是中國大陸、美國等國家樂見的結果。

楊大力分析,國際趨勢傾向希望台灣保持現狀,並不是憂心政黨因此輪替,而是一旦政黨輪替後,兩岸關係變得棘手,進而影響國際利益。

另一方面,從這次的台灣選舉,也可以看出中國大陸在處理台灣問題時,明顯吸取了歷史教訓,不再像以往一般以幾近威脅方式向台灣喊話,而學會採取比較低調的策略,這也顯示中國大陸在因應兩岸關係狀況的態度,比過去成熟許多。楊大力也肯定民進黨在這次總統大選的整體表現。

密西根大學安娜堡校區羅斯商業學院教授林愿清(Linda Y. C. Lim)表示,馬英九勝選可望使兩岸經濟發展維持穩定,她認為,事實上,馬英九與蔡英文兩位總統候選人在兩岸經貿發展議題上,並沒有太大分歧,都同意維持穩定和平、保持開放的方向發展。

林愿清提到,馬勝選後對兩岸經貿及商業連結上的正面影響,無疑美國等地所樂見,但她認為,除了經貿的發展外,馬英九未來應該要留意來自台灣內部人民可能感到的「政治危機」。

她解釋,不能否認還有45%的台灣選民,在大選中選擇支持民進黨。林愿清說,例如對大陸開放台灣觀光後,蜂擁而來的大陸客,究竟是否獲得所有市井小民認同?還有待觀察,她認為這也是未來四年馬英九執政時,可能面臨的挑戰。林愿清表示,兩岸關係維持現狀平和穩定,絕對比兩岸關係產生不良變化,更有利於世界經濟發展。

(世界日報:黃惠玲)
 

 


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In a recently published piece, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Asia expert Dan Blumenthal explains that elections in Taiwan are increasingly about which candidate can successfully engage China while protecting Taiwan's status. Though voters had their doubts about President Ma, he won that critical argument decisively and was reelected.


Blumenthal makes 5 key points:

 1. Taiwanese politics are maturing and changing. Taiwanese want to benefit from trade with China while maintaining their dignity as citizens of Taiwan. Elections in Taiwan are increasingly about which candidate can successfully engage China while protecting Taiwan's status.

 2. Any thought of "abandoning" Taiwan should be relegated to ivory tower social science labs. The vast majority of Taiwanese would simply leave the island if the U.S. withheld support, a boon to Northern California perhaps, but a stain on America's honor and a severe blow to the kind of Asia we want.

 3. It is increasingly awkward for China to remain authoritarian. After four free and fair elections in Taiwan, the mainland Chinese people do not buy their government's condescending arguments that Chinese people are not "ready" for democracy. Taiwan's democracy works, in a Confucian cultural setting. Taiwan had to sacrifice neither economic growth nor stability for democracy.
 4. Democracy in China would probably have the same effect over time on cross-Strait relations. The Chinese people would also opt for moderation and stability. All sorts of solutions might emerge that would let the Chinese people live in peace and prosperity as well.

 5. U.S. must stand shoulder to shoulder with Taiwan. There is no sense letting the sacrifices of Americans who fought and died for freedom in Asia be in vain. Washington must hold out until politics in China changes, which would pave the way for a peaceful democratic solution.


Daniel Blumenthal is a commissioner and former vice chairman of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He previously worked on Taiwan in the Department of Defense’s policy shop. He can be reached at dblumenthal@aei.org or through his assistant lara.crouch@aei.org (202.862.7160)


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