【侨学网述评】竞选芝加哥市长的房东与房客



文章来源:芝加哥侨学网   时间:2010年11月26日 点击:6841 次 评论: 2

竞选下届芝加哥市长的一对房东、房客:左为 Rahm Emanuel,右为 Rob Halpin

 

【侨学网述评】竞选下届芝加哥市长的,共有20位候选人,其中包括一对房东与房客,房东是前白宫幕僚长伊曼纽(Rahm Emanuel),房客则是伊曼纽芝加哥住宅的房客哈宾(Rob Halpin)。此外,20人名单上,还包括芝加哥历史上首位亚裔市长候选人John Hu。

房东与房客一起选市长,如此戏剧性的局面,是伊曼纽的政敌在以丰富的想象力,继续炒作伊曼纽的芝加哥居民身份问题。华人移民多为“身份”所困,没想到如今前白宫幕僚长出来竞选芝加哥市长,也要为“身份”所困。

房东与房客共同竞选市长,让明年2月22日的选举充满了喜剧色彩,充满了马克吐温“竞选州长”式的幽默。伊曼纽的政敌为了攻击乃至除掉他,居然鼓动他的房客也出来选市长。 如今这位房客也位列市长候选人名单,是为了让民众时刻记得这样一个疑问:伊曼纽从华盛顿跑回来竞选芝加哥市长,他是否还是芝加哥居民?是否还符合选民资格?

芝加哥市的相关选举法令规定:参加市政府公职选举必须持有至少一年的芝加哥市居民身份。事实上,11月24日已有律师正式提出诉讼,要求审查伊曼纽还是不是芝加哥市居民,是否符合选民资格。

2008年奥巴马总统正式就职后,伊曼纽全家迁往华盛顿,他位于芝加哥北郊的住房就出租给Rob Halpin。今年9月底,伊曼纽宣布辞去白宫幕僚长之职,要竞选下届芝加哥市长。伊曼纽回到芝加哥后,曾要求房客罗伯哈宾搬走,但没想到这位罗伯哈宾先生也不是省油的灯,他以租约并未到期为理由拒绝搬走。

在伊曼纽宣布竞选芝加哥市长后,他的政敌就放出舆论,炒作伊曼纽的身份问题,对他还是不是芝加哥市居民、是否符合市长候选人资格提出质疑。更有戏剧性的是,他的政敌曾鼓动Rob Halpin先生也出来竞选市长。

这已不是闹剧,11月22日是下届市长候选人提名的最后期限,Rob Halpin先生最后居然也弄到了至少12,500个支持签名,位列下届市长候选人名单。

这也是闹剧,因为没人会相信这位名不见经传的“房客”能赢得选举,Rob Halpin出来竞选市长,只不过体现了政客们的创新思维与丰富想象力。

早前 Chicago Tribune曾报道,选举律师伯特(Burt Odelson)将提出诉讼,质疑伊曼纽是否为芝加哥市居民、是否符合市长候选人资格,并且要求加哥选举委员会将伊曼纽从芝加哥市长候选人名单上剔除。这位伯特大律师,就是另外一名芝加哥市长候人米克斯(James Meeks)的法律咨询顾问。

伯特律师虽然公开表示提起此项诉讼与James Meeks无任何关联,但此地无银三百两,谁能看不出关联?

早前 Chicago Tribune 也曾报道, 伊曼纽约的政敌之一、第19区共和党委员会委员帕瑞利(James Parrilli),协同某保险业界大亨,日前曾亲自登门拜访伊曼纽的房客罗伯哈宾(Rob Halpin),鼓动这位特殊的房客出来竞选市长。

华人移民多为“身份”所困,没想到前白宫幕僚长出来竞选芝加哥市长,也要为“身份”所困。

对于有关芝加哥居民身份的质疑与炒作,伊曼纽的选举阵营日前已正式回应指出,今年1月伊曼纽曾将“缺席投票”申请签名并寄回给芝加哥选举委员会,伊曼纽阵营公开展示了该申请表复印件,并且指出,所有伊州选民不管选举日当天身在何处都有权进行缺席投票。

伊曼纽的法律顾问克里洛夫(Mike Kreloff)表示,伊州法律规定,伊州居民在离开家乡为政府服务时,有权保留他们的投票权,而且,是否注册选民也同居民身份问题不能划等号。伊曼纽在白宫任职期间,他并没有卖掉他在芝加哥的房产,他仍然继续缴纳房产税。

据“芝加哥零售业协会”本周三完成的民意测验,在20位芝加哥候选人中,伊曼纽(Rahm Emanuel)以39%的民意支持率,领先其他对手:前参议员卡罗(Carol Moseley)的民意支持率为12%,芝加哥前大学委员会主席贾科(Gery Chico)为9%,联邦国会议员丹尼戴维斯(Danny Davis)为7%,伊州议会参议员米克斯(James Meeks)为5%,市政府书记官米古德维尔(Miguel Del Valle)  为5%。其他候选人的支持率则都在2%以下。分析人士指出,伊曼纽遥遥领先其他对手,得益于库克郡警长汤姆达特(Tom Dart)宣布推出市长竞选。

目前共有四名非裔候选人竞选市长,包括:前参议员卡罗(Carol Moseley),伊州议会参议员米克斯(James Meeks),联邦国会议员丹尼戴维斯(Danny Davis),以及本周刚刚宣布入场的联邦参议员罗兰柏瑞斯(Roland Burris)。在以往的重要公职选举中,芝加哥的非裔社区为了不分散选票,只推出一名非裔候选人,但这次的市长选举,情况已经改变。分析人士指出,四位非裔竞选人参选,将分散非裔社区选票,形势对伊曼纽有利。

John Hu,芝加哥历史上有位亚裔市长候选人 (疑为华裔)

 

在20名市长候选人中,还包括一名亚裔美国人胡约翰(John Hu),胡约翰是出生在芝加哥地区的亚裔人士,是房地产代理。从姓名拼写上看,这位John Hu 应该是华人,ABC。对于很多陌生的名字出现在芝加哥市长候选人名单上,主流媒体的评论很委婉:“那是一些出现一次,也许再也不会出现的名字”。

不过无论如何,John Hu是芝加哥历史上首位亚裔市长候选人,John Hu 的勇气值得敬佩,鲁迅说过了,总要有第一个吃螃蟹的人。John Hu 竞选芝加哥市长的网站为:http://citizenmayor.net/index.html

(作者:芝加哥侨学网版主黄药师)

 


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With the field now set for the upcoming February 2011 Chicago mayoral election, it’s time to recap the candidates and make some predictions. At first glance, I was surprised that for the first time ever, there isn’t a single viable White, non-Jewish candidate on the ballot. We seem to be headed into uncharted waters. The field is split between two factions – pro-Machine Democrats who are pretending to be reformers and political long-shots who truly are reformers.

With that said, here’s a quick summary of each candidate:

?Carol Moseley Braun: Former U.S. Senator.

?Gery Chico: Former Daley Chief of Staff, CPS President.

?Danny Davis: U.S. Congressman.

?Wilfredo De Jesus: Reverend at Humboldt Park Church, Zoning Board of Appeals Commissioner.

?Miguel De Valle: City Clerk, former State Senator.

?Rahm Emanuel: Former Congressman, Clinton Senior Advisor, Obama Chief of Staff.

?M. Tricia Lee: Not a resident. She will be knocked off the ballot.

?Tyrone Carter: Music producer, author.

?Jay Stone: Didn’t file enough petition signatures. He will be knocked off the ballot.

?Ryan Graves: City worker, pro-union.

?Patricia Van Pelt Watkins: Community activist.

?Fenton C. Patterson: Candidate is making no effort.

?Frederick K. White: City employee. His platform is a watered-down version of business as usual.

?Rob Halpin: Rahm’s tenant who won’t move out.

?Tommy Hanson: Didn’t file required paperwork. He will be knocked off the ballot.

?James T. Meeks: State Senator, Pastor of mega-Church.

?Roland W. Burris: Current U.S. Senator (appointed), drafted as Mayoral candidate without his participation.

?John Hu: Real estate broker, reformer, non-politician.

?William Walls III: Community activist. Harold Washington/Jesse Jackson Democrat.

?Howard Ray: Candidate is making no effort.

So, that’s the official list. For the life-long Chicago residents on the precipice of a new beginning, this is a less than impressive assortment of ‘business as usual’ career politicians and ‘not a chance in hell’ reformers. As unique as Chicago is however, we can’t simply anoint the ‘Rahm-inator’ our next Mayor and skip the election. For this Mayoral election has all the earmarks of becoming a mad-house and free-for-all. Let’s crunch the numbers, shall we?

First, let’s drop all the candidates who will either be knocked off the ballot or who appear to be on track to garner less than one percent of the vote. That would include Lee, Carter, Stone, Graves, Patterson, Halpin, Hanson and Ray. That leaves us with twelve potential Mayors. Since Chicago seems to always vote along racial lines, we’re already seeing the White, Black and Hispanic communities attempting to unite behind a single candidate. They know that if their race splits their vote between multiple candidates, it’ll doom them all. Another factor will be voter turn-out. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume the voting demographic breaks out like this: White – 35%, Black – 30%, Hispanic – 25%, Asian – 5%, Other – 5%. I know those numbers are a little different than the 2000 census or previous elections. But this is no ordinary election. Now, let’s see how this might shake out.

Black candidates: Braun, Davis, Watkins, Meeks, Burris and Walls.



Hispanic candidates: Chico, De Jesus and Del Valle.

Asian candidates: Hu.

White candidates: White.

Jewish candidates: Emanuel.



For arguments sake, let’s say that the lesser-known candidates will be lucky to hit the one or two percent mark. That includes Watkins, Walls, De Jesus and White and leaves us with ninety-five percent of the vote to divide up between eight remaining candidates. And here’s where we make some big assumptions.

Assuming Braun will be the top vote getter in the Black community with Davis and Meeks picking up a respectable percentage and Burris being a non-factor, I’m going to break out the 30% Black voting block as follows: Braun 50%, Davis 25%, Meeks 20% and the remaining 5% split between the other candidates, with most going to Emanuel.

In the Hispanic community, Chico has the advantage of the Daley Machine. But don’t underestimate Del Valle. He was the first candidate to declare his candidacy, air a TV commercial, have a web site and Facebook page, and most importantly, the first and only candidate to pledge not to take campaign contributions from any companies that do business with the city. That promise alone gives him the right to claim the title of ‘reformer’ and distance himself from the rest of the ‘almost reformers’. The wildcard will be Emanuel’s ability to penetrate the Hispanic leadership and get them to side with Rahm. Of the Hispanic 25% block, I’m going to give Emanuel the benefit of the doubt and 20% of the Hispanic vote. That leaves Del Valle 40% and Chico 40%.

The Asian community is more of a ‘gimme’. I’m going to assume John Hu gets the full 5% of the Asian vote, plus a respectable 5% of the White vote. Your author remembers Hu from his days growing up around St. Monica’s grade school and Notre Dame High School. He was liked and respected and with the absence of a White candidate, Hu may pick up even more than that.

The White community will be a surprise. This could be the first time in history that Chicago doesn’t have a White candidate to unite behind. Some of you are probably raising your eyebrows at these statements. But I’ll bet it’s only the people who have never experienced a Rahm Emanuel campaign on the streets of Chicago. Rahm Emanuel was your author’s Congressman and I remember only too well the reception Emanuel was given in the White community. Keep in mind that Chicago is the most Polish city on Earth and when the President of the Polish American Congress says you’re a, “millionaire carpetbagger who knows nothing” you’ve got problems. Chicago’s fired-up Christian and Muslim communities might also have a problem with the fact that Emanuel holds duel U.S./Israeli citizenship, was a volunteer in the Israeli Defense Force, is financed by Jewish film producers in Hollywood and is the poster child for every conspiracy theorist’s vision of the New World Order. For that reason, I believe the White community will only give him 65% of their vote.


But who gets the remaining 30% of the White voting block? If you look at the most recent trends, those are the ‘Forrest Claypool independents’ and ‘anti-Rahm machine Democrats’. I’ll call it a toss-up with Del Valle getting the 15% reform vote and Chico getting the 15% Machine vote. And don’t forget Hu. He grew up on the White Northwest side. I’ve given him 5% of the White vote with the bulk of that coming from his old neighborhood.

The last category is the ‘other’ column. I’m assuming that’s the ever-increasing number of Asians and Middle Easterners. I’m also assuming the percentage of Muslims and independent voters in this group is higher than the other voting blocks. For the sake of ease and probability, let’s spread the 5% equally between each of the top five candidates. That would give Emanuel, Chico, Del Valle, Braun and Davis one more percent each overall.

…and the final tally is:


Emanuel – 31%

Braun – 16%

Chico – 16%

Del Valle – 16%

Davis – 9%

Hu – 7%

Meeks – 6%


Remaining 3% divided among other candidates.


So, there you have it. Only the top two vote-getters advance to the run-off election. Emanuel’s assured a spot. But who will his challenger be? Braun, Chico and Del Valle should be in a statistical tie by the end of election night. Unless…Chico or Del Valle drop out and endorse the other. If you’re looking for a prediction, here it is. Del Valle will drop out and bring his city Clerk army to the Chico camp. A united Hispanic community combined with two patronage armies should have no problem securing Chico a 32% victory over Emanuel’s 31% and Braun’s 16%. Even if Davis drops out and endorses Braun, that only brings her total to 25% and not enough to secure the second run-off spot.

So what happens in the run-off with Chico, the ultimate insider versus Emanuel, the ultimate outsider? The answer is one hell of an election. I can’t wait. Find us on Facebook or send comments and questions to illinoisindependence@yahoo.com


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